Momodu in a press release on Monday, January 23, 2023, dismissed polls that predicted victory for the All Progressives Congress presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu, and the presidential candidate of the Labour Social gathering, Peter Obi.
In keeping with him, the polls carried out by surveying businesses over-relied on know-how for an election that will probably be decided by Nigeria’s largely illiterate inhabitants.
Alluding to historic details, the writer of the Ovation Journal mentioned any election during which the south presents two common candidates, the north wins.
He mentioned, “I’ve learn with bemusement most of the polls concerning the forthcoming presidential election on February 25, 2023, and have come to the conclusion that the elitist polls have failed monumentally as a result of over-reliance on know-how in a largely illiterate inhabitants.
“I’ve determined to assist situate the forecasts based mostly on the established political historical past of Nigeria and empirical knowledge.
“A presidential candidate can not rely completely on votes from exterior his dwelling base to win this election. It’s a truth of historical past that every time the South produced two sturdy candidates, the dominant northern candidate received, resembling in 1979 and 1983, Obafemi Awolowo and Nnamdi Azikiwe versus Shehu Shagari.
Momodu believes Tinubu is just not common within the north, including that the votes the APC presidential candidate would collect within the area wouldn’t be sufficient to win the election.
“Tinubu is way weaker immediately within the South-West and Awolowo was by much more formidable, whereas Obi is the brand new Azikiwe (the primary Governor Common and President of Nigeria) within the South-East, and Kwankwaso is the present Aminu Kano.
“Atiku will dominate the North-East, North-West, North-Central and South-South. Tinubu could decide just a few states within the North and South-West however received’t have sufficient to win. The bridges required to cross to victory has taken Atiku 30 years to construct. Tinubu has not been capable of lock down the whole South-West to not discuss of the entire of Nigeria. Over-reliance on bribing the electorates will fail,” he mentioned.
On Obi, Momodu mentioned the Labour Social gathering candidate and Atiku would slug it out within the Southeast, which is predicted to be the stronghold of Obi.
The writer maintained that Atiku would sweep the south-south area, including that the PDP candidate would get substantial votes throughout the 36 states to file 25 per cent in 24 states.
He mentioned, “Wherever Obi is primary within the East, Atiku shall be quantity two. Wherever Tinubu is primary within the South-West, Atiku shall be quantity two or vice versa. Atiku would be the first to cross the road of recording 25 per cent in 24 states. He’ll get 25 per cent robotically within the 19 states of northern areas and can decide six within the South-South robotically.
“He’ll decide up 25 per cent in all the 5 states within the South-East, a standard base of the PDP, and the identical within the South-West. Wherever Obi is primary, Atiku shall be quantity two or vice versa.
“I have no idea if in any state, the PDP won’t file 25 per cent and ultimately win the general common votes. Nigeria has change into so divided that the persons are going to vote majorly alongside ethnic traces in addition to primordial sentiments.
“The North won’t vote for a “pretend Muslim” within the identify of a pretentious and mischievous Muslim/Muslim ticket. The rip-off is lifeless on arrival.”
He additional mentioned that the Northwest area wouldn’t abandon an Atiku for a Tinubu who in keeping with him is well-known for his iron grip on Lagos State since 1999.
Momodu concluded that Atiku was probably the most ready and skilled candidate within the race.
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